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The Wall St. Journal is reporting that the number of people who plan to go to the movies in 2018 is set to drop by 7.5%, from 1.4 billion in 2019 to 1.3 billion in 2020.
The drop is driven by the decline of the box office and by a decline in the number in theaters for the first time in decades.
This is not a new trend.
Box office numbers for the year to date show a drop of more than a third.
In 2018, the year after the election, moviegoers dropped by 5% and now are down 2%.
The Journal reports that the drop in moviegoing is due in large part to the lack of a new movie release and a drop in box office revenue from the big-ticket releases, including the $1 billion “Avatar” movie, and the $3 billion “Star Wars” reboot.
It is also due to the slowdown in online sales, the collapse in ticket sales for theatrical releases and a reduction in ticket prices from $4 to $3.50.
This is why it’s important to look beyond the theatrical numbers.
As the Journal points out, “it is not clear if the decline will continue beyond 2019.
Still, this decline is a concern.
It could be the beginning of a decline for the industry.”
The paper also notes that, although many of the new releases will have a positive impact on the industry, they will not be able to compete with the massive box office successes of the “Avatars” and “Star Trek” franchises.
The biggest winners in the “Star wars” reboot will be Disney, which has $2.3 trillion in revenue and is already the highest grossing studio in Hollywood.
The company’s profits are forecast to reach $100 billion in 2021, and by 2022, it will have $1.6 trillion in profits.
It’s worth noting that the “Arrival” and the “The Martian” sequels are expected to hit $2 billion each and generate an estimated $1 trillion in profit.
The Wall St Journal notes that the industry has also seen its own troubles in the last year.
The movie business suffered from a weak box office performance, a slowdown in new releases and the drop of the industry’s leading franchise.
In 2019, “The Force Awakens” fell 48% in the U.S. and 48% internationally.
“The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies” also saw a drop and has been down 35% in theaters and 48%, according to Box Office Mojo.
The Journal adds that, despite the recent dip in the box-office revenue, the overall box office is projected to increase this year.
“This is not to suggest that moviegoing will decline in 2020 and beyond,” the paper writes.
“There will be a resurgence in theatrical sales and moviegoing as more films are released in theaters.
But the decline in box-up numbers is not expected to last.”
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